1 May 2020, NIICE Commentary 4421
Rashmi Ramesh
COVID-19 has taken a toll on the social, political and economic landscape of the world. Even as the pandemic rages through, scholars have been imagining a world after COVID-19, predicting that the order of the world might not be the same, at least in the near future. The brighter side of this crisis revolves around the signs of revival of nature – cleaner air and water, wild animals reclaiming their spaces in crowded urban areas, and so on. While one hopes this continues, the issue that needs some focus is the debate on climate change and sustainable development after the COVID-19 curve is flat and some version of “normalcy” is returned. How will policy makers view climate change in a post-COVID world? Will the emphasis on sustainable development and cleaner environment continue, or will it be dominated by fulfilment of immediate economic and social needs?
Today’s Scenario
There has been a drastic decline in the economic activity and the movement of the people in the current pandemic. Industries are closed, as countries are either practising social distancing or blanket restrictions. The biggest economies, which are also the largest carbon emitters, are under lockdown. According to the Chief Economist of International Monetary Fund (IMF), Gita Gopinath, this is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of 1929-30. In her words, “the magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes.” On the other end, there have been reports of the nature rejuvenating itself, now that the human presence is at bay. Whether it is the canals in Venice, the cleaner Yamuna and Ganga rivers in India, the wild lions strolling in cities of South Africa, or the drastic reduction in pollution due to which the snow-clad Himalayas were visible from Punjab, these pictures have projected the “good” side of the “Great Pandemic”. However, this is a temporary breath of relief, and not a reversal of climate change itself.
Post-Pandemic Scenario
Health infrastructure of all countries is currently being stretched to its maximum capacity in order to meet requirements of increasing Coronavirus patients. There has been an increased expenditure on healthcare. Scientists are attempting to invent vaccines and medicines for combating COVID-19, and this will continue after the peak of the pandemic as well. The World Health Organization (WHO) is doing its part to contain the virus, across the world, though questions on its integrity and response to the crisis have been raised by the American administration, and consequently by some other countries.
While this is the current scenario, the primary aim of all countries after the epidemic, would be to spring back into action, with full-fledged economic activities taking off. The IMF in its recent estimates, has projected extremely low rates of growth for almost all the countries. The risk of recession is looming on a globalised world; a world which was already affected by the 2008 crisis. However, the IMF has also estimated a come-back with more vigour. It is estimated that China will grow at the rate of 9.2 percent and India at 7.4 percent in 2021.
How are countries going to react to climate change henceforth? There are large possibilities that the states will put climate action on the back-burner and focus on their economics. Funds for education and combating climate change will slide down dramatically. The developed countries who have been greatly affected by the pandemic, will emphasise on fighting recession, and the developing countries will spend more on economic revival and health infrastructure to recover from the impact of COVID-19 and prepare for such unforeseen events. Therefore, expenditure on clean and green economy, as well as on climate policies, will be pushed behind.
How are international regimes on climate change impacted due to COVID-19? The United Nations has begun channelising its energy on the responses to the pandemic. The Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP26), that was scheduled to be held in November 2020 in Scotland, has been postponed to 2021. The conference was deemed crucial, as it had to contemplate on the issues carried forward from the COP25 in Madrid, and the countries were to submit their long-term pollution goals to achieve peak emission lows by 2050.
We are yet again witnessing a situation where economy is juxtaposed with environment. It is likely that the UN will request the countries to take the path of sustainability while reviving their economies. However, the chances of the states meeting the SDGs seem bleak at this moment. International agreements like the Paris Accord are under threat, as the virus is an immediate issue, one step ahead of climate change. The response of the civil society is yet to be seen. As individual lives are being affected to a greater extent, the future of climate protests and a proactive civil society pressing for climate action is uncertain.
Conclusion
Firstly, the lockdown definitely had some positive impacts, but this is no way a solution to an existential threat like climate change. Antarctica saw its first official heatwave, even as the pandemic wreaked havoc and the pollution levels declaredly came down. Secondly, the world is clearly unprepared to handle the incremental effects of climate change. It must be taken as seriously as the pandemic. Denial will only put pressure on the population. Greater impacts of both the events are being felt by the vulnerable and the poor. The focus on climate change and health must go simultaneously, as they are interconnected – a better climate yields better health, and helps ease the pressure on the health systems of a nation. In this hour of crisis, a long-term planning is much needed. Simultaneous planning for healthcare and climate change is a policy feature that countries should not let go at this juncture.
