24 April 2020, NIICE Commentary 4232
Dr. Sampa Kundu
On 24 March 2020, Myanmar reported its first two COVID-19 cases. One of the affected nationals landed in Myanmar from the US, and the other one from Britain. That was the beginning of the pandemic in the Land of the Golden Pagodas. Within a month, that is, by 24 April 2020, Myanmar reported 121 confirmed COVID-19 cases with a large concentration of positive cases based in Yangon region. As a result, on 18 April 2020, the Ministry of Health and Sports of Myanmar issued the public notice under the Prevention and Control of Communicable Diseases Law to impose several restrictions in the seven most affected townships in Yangon. According to the government order, only factory workers, government workers and corporate employees are allowed to go to their workplaces, wearing face masks, and only one person from each household is allowed to use a vehicle to go for essential shopping. Large gatherings have been prohibited as well. This was in continuation to a previous order that was issued in the first week of April. Apart from this, in Mandalay, a transportation lockdown has been announced, which was in effect till 21 April 2020. Prior to this, in the last week of March, the schools were closed down, the Water Festival was cancelled and NGOs were restricted from holding public gatherings. All other public events were prohibited; however, the shopping malls remained open. A nation-wide lockdown has not yet been announced in Myanmar, unlike many of its South Asian neighbours. Apart from the above-mentioned measures, the Government of Myanmar has formed a Committee for Control and Emergency Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019, comprising of the Vice President, the Defence Minister, the Border Affairs Minister, the Home Minister and the Labour, Immigration and Population Minister. As an economic precautionary measure, the government has also prohibited unnecessary hoarding of essential supplies. The fact remains that despite having a long international border with China, the epicentre of COVID-19, Myanmar has unexpectedly reported relatively less number of cases in comparison to some of its Southeast Asian neighbours like Thailand and Singapore. However, insufficient number of testing could be a possible reason for the limited reporting of positive cases so far. This seems to be a very realistic possibility, especially since the poor health infrastructure story of Myanmar is widely known.
Having mentioned these facts, the inevitable question that needs to be answered is how would Myanmar outdo the deeper implications of COVID-19 pandemic on its socio-political-economic systems and its future, especially given its lengthy, bloody and exhausting struggle to achieve a democratic setup after decades of military rule just few years back. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April version of the World Economic Outlook has already projected a slow growth rate for Myanmar. The real GDP growth is projected to slow down to 2-3 percent for the current financial year. The export trade of Myanmar is expected to face a decline as the country’s main export markets, including the European Union nations, have imposed all-encompassing lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in their respective territories. According to a recent report released by the World Bank, almost three-quarters of Myanmar’s non-agricultural workers depend on informal sectors, both of which might face a demand and supply shock in the aftermath of the pandemic, which will result in a drastic reduction in the demand for labour. The World Bank report, titled The East Asia and the Pacific Economic Outlook, released in April 2020, mentioned that the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) had indicated that almost 80 percent of Myanmar’s garment factories are already on the verge of shutdown as they are not getting raw materials from China, thereby rendering almost 400,000 workers jobless. Besides that, Myanmar is also facing problems in the tourism industry and its agricultural exports to China and other countries have been disrupted too. The shrinking of the Chinese economy is bound to deepen the repercussions on Myanmar’s economy as 33 percent of Myanmar’s export and import trade, 15 percent of Myanmar’s FDI and 20 percent of the country’s foreign tourist arrivals depend on China, as indicated in the World Bank report.
However, not surprisingly, this economic trouble is unlikely to bother Myanmar’s fraternity with China. In January, President Xi Jinping paid an official visit to Myanmar, which was the first of its kind in 19 years. During this visit, no side spoke about the COVID-19 pandemic and on the contrary, both the leaderships emphasised on deeper economic and infrastructure cooperation between Nay Pyi Taw and Beijing. Reports indicate that 33 Memorandums of Understandings (MoU), exchange letters and protocols were signed during this visit. Both sides focused on China-Myanmar Economic Cooperation and the development of Kyuak Phyu Special Economic Zone in the Rakhine state, which is a part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This bonhomie between China and Myanmar seems to be an uninterrupted one, and will hopefully continue in the same way after the pandemic.
However, it will be difficult for Myanmar to escape the economic and social shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This will perhaps destabilize the country’s already shackled economic infrastructure. In addition, the leaders of Myanmar would need to be more careful in preventing the spread of the Coronavirus in the densely populated camps of the Rohingya population, and other areas across the country, to stop the unmanageable catastrophe and a public health emergency.
