9 April 2020, NIICE Commentary 3990
Dr. Igor Semenovskiy & Dr. Olga Podberezkina
For a long time, Russia’s foreign policy efforts were focused on strengthening the principles and the central role of the United Nations in the global politics, maintaining international security and stability, developing mutually cooperation with foreign partners. Russia uses the potentials of multilateral forums, including the G20, BRICS, SCO, RIC and others to promote a unified agenda and improve the international cooperation and establish collective framework in the interests of solving the fundamental problems of contemporary times.
Recent Engagement
Russian-China relations in the 21st century is officially defined as comprehensive, strategic partnership. The basic principles of their renewed relation is defined by the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation which was signed on 16 July 2001. Both the countries are committed to mutual cooperation in all the field and work together to maintain peace, security and stability in Asia and the world including in the framework of the organizations mentioned above. There has been frequent interaction between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. During the 70th Anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations in 2019, both the leaders agreed to further deepen their relations in the political, economic, cultural, humanitarian and other spheres.
Political Dimensions
During his visit to Moscow in June 2019, the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin made joint statement on strengthening the global strategic stability in the modern era, focusing on issues such as international mechanisms in the field of non-proliferation and arms control (including space), Iranian nuclear program, inadmissibility of sanctions pressure on independent states and strengthening the role of the UN in the international system.
In 2019, noticeably, they intensified the multilevel dialogue in the Russia-India-China format. An informal meeting of the three countries was held on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka. All participating countries reaffirmed their general disposition to uphold the democratic principles of the modern world order and the principles of multilateralism, and to increase coordination in international affairs. Similarly, Russia continued to promote a vision of effective international anti-extremist cooperation based on the SCO Convention on Countering Extremism, signed in 2017 and ratified by Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
At the time when NATO is expanding its capabilities in the East to undermine Russia’s influence in the Arctic by the deployment of missile defense systems in neighbouring countries of the Russia Federation by the United States, China, because of its own interest in the Arctic, can help with building in the Russia infrastructure required for the development of the shortest Eurasian Maritime Transport Corridor – Northern Sea Route. The US has strengthened military cooperation with those countries claiming territory on the North Pole. While the United States is trying to increase military power in the Arctic, Russia is going to serve as chairman of the upcoming Arctic Council from 2021 to 2023 and promote its agenda.
Economic Dimensions
In 2019, the volume of bilateral trade reached a record point, exceeding USD 110 billion (USD 56.79 billion – Russia’s export and USD 54.13 billion – Russia’s import). China’s share in Russian exports in 2019 was 13.43 percent (highest among other countries). Similarly, China’s share in Russian imports in 2019 was 22.20 percent (which was also the highest). However, it should be noted that 73.09 percent of Russian export was mineral products and 7.66 percent was wood and pulp-paper products. Import from China to Russia was more diversified and predominantly non-primary (57.04 percent – machines, equipment and vehicles, 10.81 percent – textiles and shoes, 10.14 percent chemical industry products etc).
In December 2019, China and Russia opened the giant gas pipeline project – ‘Power of Siberia’. The ‘Power of Siberia’ project will see a gas pipeline stretching from the Chayandinskoye and Kovyktinskoye fields in Russia’s east over more than 3,000 kilometers to Liaoning in northeastern China. The fuel delivered through it is expected to reach 5 billion cubic meters in 2020 and increase to 38 billion cubic meters per year in accordance with a 30-year contract signed between the Gazprom of Russia and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in May 2014. The project, which Putin has called ‘the world’s biggest construction project,’ is set to pump USD 400 billion into Russia’s economy.
China is steadily moving forward with its plans to buy oil for strategic reserves after a sharp decline in prices in 2020. The world’s largest oil importer is taking advantage of a 60 percent decline in the cost of oil this year to buy cheaper barrels for its reserves. With the decline in the Oil prices, China can support Russian economy by guarantying stable demands.
In December 2019, both the countries decided on the list of key projects for organizing the Year of Russian-Chinese Scientific, Technical and Innovation Cooperation, set to take place in 2020-2021. Similarly, both the countries are also engaging economically at multilateral forums. For instance, in May 2018, the Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the People’s Republic of China was signed, which came into force in October 2019. This agreement is non-preferential in nature and covers the scope of industry cooperation, customs regulation, competition, technical regulation, protection of intellectual property rights, electronic commerce and other areas. Experts believe it as an important milestone in the implementation of Russia’s President initiative of the Greater Eurasian Partnership. Similarly, in December 2019, Moscow hosted the sixth meeting of the Russian-Chinese Working Group on coordinating the development plans of the EAEU and the BRI. Further, they continued the implementation of the joint program for the formation of the trilateral economic corridor Russia-Mongolia-China to develop infrastructure along the largest mineral deposits in Eastern Siberia and Mongolia and connect it to the industrial centers of China.
Risks for Russia
Despite the achievements and the ambitious plans in bilateral relations, there remains some risks for Russia in further collaboration with China. According to experts, Russian macroeconomy dependence on China, attempts of China to build transport corridors bypassing the territory of Russia are of serious concern. Similarly, almost complete absence of real ways to diversify cooperation with other important global players can make Russia dependent on in the political sphere. There are a number of concerns regarding the positions of China in the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asia, the CIS countries and even the Arctic, where the views of two states differ. Similarly, the observers point out that the increased economic influence of China in southern Siberia and the Far East, illegal actions of Chinese citizens and organizations in cooperation with Russian criminal elements in these regions on enormous scale are worrisome. There are several other such threat that pose extreme risks to Russia.
Conclusions
In recent times, Russia and China have (or is perceived) common approach to the fundamental issues of the contemporary world order on key international problems. On that basis, Russia and China have maintained closer ties as their interests overlap. Russia will continue to take strong measures aimed at harmonizing integration processes in Eurasia, pairing the EAEU and the Belt and Road Initiative, and the formation of a Greater Eurasian Partnership. In this regard, the development of partnership with China, as a key player in the region, will be a priority for Russia’s foreign policy. Though the risks mentioned above might not erupt in Russia-China relations immediately, but, Russia should take precautions to avoid them.
