17 October 2025, NIICE Commentary 11845
Abiranjali Khatry
In South Asia, climate change is more than just an environmental issue as it is turning into a humanitarian and security crisis. The Himalayan and Bay of Bengal regions, where ecological fragility, dense populations, and weak infrastructure converge, are emerging as hotspots of climate-induced migration. Yet climate migration remains under-theorized in both policy or academic research. In such zones, shifting rainfall patterns, glacial melt, sea level rise, and extreme events are already displacing people internally and across borders, with disproportionate impacts on vulnerable groups. The region’s experience demonstrates that climate displacement is no longer a future possibility, it is an unfolding reality demanding legal recognition, coordinated policy, and human-centered adaptation.
Climate migration in South Asia rarely stems from a single cause. It results from the intersection of environmental degradation, economic precarity, and social inequality. In the low-lying deltaic zones of Bangladesh and eastern India, rising seas and recurrent cyclones have already forced thousands of families inland, contaminating freshwater and salinizing farmland. A recent systematic review confirms that floods, cyclones, and coastal erosion remain the primary climatic drivers of migration in Bangladesh and India. In the Himalayan arc, by contrast, glacial retreat and erratic monsoons are reshaping entire landscapes. In Nepal’s Upper Mustang region, for instance, entire villages have been relocated after mountain springs dried up, depriving communities of their only source of water.
These environmental shifts, however, operate through existing social vulnerabilities. In Nepal’s mid-hill and Terai districts, such as Siraha, Bardiya, Ramechap, and Udayapur, erratic rainfall and declining crop yields have pushed households to send family members abroad or to urban centers. A field study by Climate Action Network South Asia revealed that up to one-quarter of local populations in some areas have migrated due to agricultural loss, water scarcity, and pest outbreaks. For many, migration is both a survival strategy and a form of adaptation to climate stress. However, such movement often intensifies existing gender and class disparities; men migrate while women stay behind, shouldering the burden of farming and caregiving under worsening conditions.
The gap between the reality of climate migration and the policies addressing it is striking. At the national level, South Asian governments often treat migration as a social problem rather than an adaptation strategy. Legal frameworks do not define climate migrants, leaving them in a grey zone of governance. Data collection is inconsistent, making it difficult to measure the true scale of movement or design evidence-based responses. Institutional responsibilities are scattered among ministries dealing separately with environment, labor, and disaster management, leading to slow coordination. Funding, meanwhile, remains heavily skewed toward infrastructure projects and mitigation efforts, with little attention to human mobility and resettlement planning.
Bridging this gap requires reframing migration as part of climate adaptation rather than as a symptom of failure. For Nepal and its neighbors, the first step is to incorporate mobility into national adaptation plans. Recognizing migration as a coping mechanism would allow governments to anticipate population movements, protect those at risk, and support communities before displacement becomes inevitable. This should include investments in climate-resilient agriculture, water management, and alternative livelihoods to reduce distress migration. Where relocation is unavoidable, it must be planned carefully, led by affected communities, supported by transparent funding, and guided by respect for human dignity and cultural ties.
Regional cooperation is equally important. The environmental challenges of South Asia transcend borders, rivers, glaciers, and monsoon systems linking the fates of multiple nations. Yet current regional forums, such as SAARC and BIMSTEC, remain underutilized in addressing climate mobility. Establishing a South Asian framework on climate migration could facilitate shared data collection, cross-border protection protocols, and coordinated disaster response. Such a framework would also help depoliticize migration by treating it as a collective security concern rather than a national burden.
Finally, global recognition of the problem must evolve. The international community has yet to extend refugee protections to those displaced by environmental change, despite growing advocacy from South Asian scholars and civil society. Climate migrants are the frontline witnesses of a global crisis created largely by industrialized nations. There is a greater possibility of climate migration doubling, and with little measures from now, the future consequences might be challenging to deal with. As per the World Bank Group, climate migrants are projected to increase by a factor of six between 2020 and 2025, and the share of climate migrants in all internal migrants could reach as high as 25 percent in the subregion. Expanding international adaptation funds to cover relocation and livelihood restoration could help bridge the justice gap between responsibility and vulnerability.
For Nepal, participating in these dialogues would strengthen its role as a moral voice for climate justice in the Global South. Besides, the crisis of climate migration in the Bay of Bengal and Himalayan region is no longer a distant warning, it is a lived reality for millions. Every flood, drought, or landslide erodes not only the land but the stability of entire communities. Ignoring this trend risks deepening inequality, straining urban systems, and sowing regional insecurity. Recognizing it, however, opens the possibility for humane and long-term policy. Migration, when understood as adaptation, can be transformed from a story of loss into one of resilience.
Climate migration remains one of the most overlooked consequences of South Asia’s climate crisis. As glaciers melt and seas rise, millions are already on the move, yet their experiences remain invisible in policy and planning. Rather than viewing migration as failure, governments must recognize it as an essential form of adaptation, one that demands protection, coordination, and dignity. Addressing climate mobility through regional cooperation and forward-looking policies would not only safeguard vulnerable communities but also position South Asia as a global leader in climate resilience and justice.
Abiranjali Khatry is a Research Intern at NIICE and she is currently pursuing her Bachelors in Arts with a major in International Relations from Fordham University, USA.
