19 August 2025, NIICE Commentary 11603
Naziba Mustabshira
One year ago today, Bangladesh experienced a political rupture that had been long in the making. On August 5, 2024, the tide of public frustration built over a decade and a half of centralized governance, constrained freedoms, economic disparity, and decaying institutional trust overflowed into the streets. The July Revolution, a student-led movement, had begun weeks earlier and set the stage for that rupture, with its leaders holding rallies across Dhaka University and beyond. The result was a popular uprising that forced the resignation of authoritarian ruler Sheikh Hasina after 15 years in power. The new interim leadership, headed by Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, promised not merely a transition of figures but a transformation of the national fabric. But one year on, has the promise of change translated into tangible shifts in the lives of ordinary citizens?
Economically, the past year has been one of damage control. The immediate fallout of the power shift included currency volatility, investor hesitancy, and government insurance lines clipped overheads. GDP growth dipped to 1.8% in the July–September 2024 quarter a sharp contrast to the 6.5 % annual target projected before the unrest and nearly 2.1 million jobs were lost, many in export-dependent sectors like RMG and the informal labor markets, disproportionately affecting women in rural zones who earned daily wages. Growth of remittance soared in late 2024, and Bangladesh paid some $4 billion of its international debt service using remittance inflows alone, dramatically easing the immediate loan payment burden. But as the dust began to settle, a cautious recovery emerged: according to the ADB’s April 2025 update, the economy has stabilized around 3.9 % annual growth, inflation has softened from a peak of 12 % to 9 %, and the budget deficit was held at 3.6 % of GDP. Still, these gains remain fragile and uneven.
Poverty markers paint a gloomy picture. According to Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), the share of households living below the upper poverty line has elevated to 23.1% from around 19.5% in 2022. Food security remains a big problem, particularly in the flood-prone char areas, where almost half of the households declared that they were forced through the course of the 2024 monsoon to miss meals or cut down on dietary diversity. Emergency-type social safety net programs helped to cushion some of the shocks, but structural reforms for food distribution and rural employment are still in need of initiation and are awaiting deliberation.
Perhaps one of the most significant political transformations has been in the psyche of the masses. Previously politically disenfranchised, Bangladeshis once again became active participants in the making of their own destiny. Campus debates, civic forums, and citizen journalism thrived: registered community organizations doubled in number since pre-August 2024, with a marked rise in youth engagement through grassroots digital civic platforms. While the legacy of the uprising marches on, the re engagement also remains a bit dangerous-surveillance, intimidation, and occasional mob violence continue to be reported-albeit, a collective sense of political agency has surely expanded.
The interim administration’s reform agenda has made some headway. A constitutional reform commission was launched in late 2024 to reconfigure power balances, judicial independence, and electoral integrity. Several public consultations followed, with draft recommendations expected later this year. The Anti-Corruption Commission was overhauled and initiated investigations resulting in indictments of former cabinet members and business elites. However, reform progress remains uneven, with bureaucratic inertia stalling efforts in energy, transport, and health sectors.
Reforms to the rule of law and law enforcement were swift but contentious. Due to claims of past misconduct, over 600 police officers were suspended or transferred. Critics contend that the redressal mechanisms are still insufficient despite the launch of a digital platform for filing citizen complaints, which currently receives over 8,000 entries monthly. Unquestionably, crime reporting has increased. During the uprising, violent crime increased dramatically, resulting in coordinated attacks on police stations and dozens of fatalities. However, today, community forums and better oversight structures allow for more thorough documentation of incidents, even if prosecutions take longer. As of December 2024, there are still 4.5 million pending cases in the judiciary, which is seriously impeding access to justice in both the criminal and civil courts. The National Commission on Enforced Disappearances has received over 1,800 formal complaints and produced two interim reports, but many cases are still pending and trials have not yet started in earnest. Meanwhile, transitional justice for victims of state violence is moving more slowly than ever.
Additionally, there has been some liberalization of the media environment. Beginning in December 2024, a number of previously prohibited newspapers and internet portals, including Amar Desh, reopened. However, press freedom is still severely restricted; since the interim government came to power, more than 600 journalists have reported being harassed, having their accreditation revoked, or losing their jobs, according to RSF and CPJ. Nine of the harshest provisions of the Digital Security Act and its successor, the Cyber Security Act, were scheduled to be repealed; however, the most controversial provisions are still in effect during the transition period. Civil society organizations maintain that complete repeal is necessary to protect the right to free speech.
The protest movement that unseated the previous regime had strong female leadership, and that legacy continues to influence policymaking. Women now occupy 37 % of interim advisory council seats. Yet on the ground, violence against women remains grossly underreported and legal apathy persists. The gender justice gap is narrowing, but not fast enough for the many women who risked everything in pursuit of change.
As the country crosses the one-year mark since the fall of a regime long linked with stagnation, the question lingers has hope truly taken root, or merely changed from? For the first time in more than a decade, University campuses now host open political debate without police barricades. These shifts are not superficial they signal a deeper restoration of civic space and freedom to organize.
Political discourse is no longer confined to encrypted chats or whispered conversations in tea stalls. It now reverberates in town halls, dormitory lawns, and online policy hackathons. A new culture of participation is emerging not utopian, but grounded in lived awakening. The youth who once posted anonymously now organize district-wide mock ballots and policy forums. Women who once led street protests now hold local council seats. The nation is not in utopia but for the first time in years, Bangladeshis are asserting the right to engage, voice, and vote.
This transformation is not devoid of anxiety. Fear has not vanished overnight; surveillance may be thinner, but remains. The ghosts of past repression still linger. Yet the weight of fear no longer paralyzes it provokes dialogue. People now see politics as a system that shapes the affordability of everyday life: price of onions, dignity of work, safety of daughters walking home. Freedom is not given it’s exercised, combining vigilance with resilience.
As Bangladesh celebrates the first anniversary of its political turmoil, the way forward is indeterminate but has indelibly changed. The risk of backsliding is indeed real, especially with political consolidation rapidly taking place in the run-up to the next election. Some analysts now speculate the vote could take place in April 2026, depending on the pace of reform. Officially, the interim leadership has pledged to hold no later than June 2026 promising to complete fundamental electoral and administrative reforms before the poll. Whether the next trip around the sun brings consolidation or collapse depends not only on leadership, but on the continued vigilance of a newly awakened citizenry. Bangladesh is no longer asleep but being awake is only the beginning of staying free.
Naziba Mustabshira is a Research Intern at NIICE and also a third-year student in International Relations at the Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), Bangladesh.
