28 July 2025, NIICE Commentary 11511
Ashutosh Shukla
The Game of Cobalt
The Indian Ocean Region is not just an ordinary ocean; it is one of the biggest grounds of geopolitical battleground, more like a chessboard, symbol of Infinity, power, conducive for trade, shipping and seabed mining, having the potential of a hotspot of Industrial and technological hub. In the 21st century, the Ocean witnessed a new Game of geopolitics- “Cobalt Game”. The properties of cobalt, which make it the metal of the decade, are high thermal stability, its use in green technology, and it’s also a critical component for lithium-ion batteries. Its stability makes it useful for use in aerospace and even in medical devices. By this, the demand for cobalt is going to expand exponentially within the World Cobalt Market, where the “Cobalt Mount of Indian Ocean “ can fill this market gap, particularly for India. Sri Lanka, according to the World Bank, is expected to produce metal at 500% of its current rate by the year 2050. The modern structure of the cobalt production and distribution is heavily polarised. China, with the help of DRC mines, Cobalt, technically, the Democratic Republic of Congo mines around 70% of the World’s cobalt; technically, DRC produces 70% of the cobalt. This vertical integration provides China with a strategic hold not only in the African market but also on the world cobalt market. Nearly 80% of Cobalt of the world is owned by Chinese companies.
Afanasy Nikitin Seamount-New Tool of IOR Geopolitics
The discovery of Afanasy Nikitin Seamount in the IOR has opened the doors of energy-hungry countries that fall under its jurisdiction of marine lines. The contest for cobalt in the Indian Ocean Region will not be confined to the economic market, but it will extend to the Ocean floor. India, an energy-hungry country that has very little domestic cobalt reserves, relies heavily on imports to fulfil its energy needs by up to 90%. In 2022 alone, the cobalt import exceeded $400 million. After recognising the need and importance of cobalt, India has intensified the exploration of the mineral in the IOR. Afanasy Niketan Seamount, which has huge deposits of Cobalt, falls under its Exploration license zone, which was earlier granted by the International Seabed Authority. India, which has technical superiority in terms of mining cobalt, where it will be hard for India to bypass Sri Lanka to mine the mineral, where China has more superiority and experience in mining ocean-based minerals, can contest against India with the help of Sri Lanka.
Hunger for Energy
The role of Sri Lanka is very crucial because it is very strategically located between ANS and India; without geostrategic alignment of Sri Lanka, India will have a lot of trouble mining the minerals. IOR has already been a chessboard for surveillance and maritime boundary disputes. The risk of geostrategic confrontation is real. Sri Lanka can act both as a stabiliser and competitor to mine the metal if it leverages its geography. Earlier, Sri Lanka had urged the ISA to halt India’s exploration bid while citing its own UN-CLCS claims over the ANS. The challenge by Lanka has challenged India’s strategic aim to counter China within the IOR in terms of exploring the cobalt and mining it, as the EV market of India is growing exponentially. India, which is mostly dependent on Cobalt imports, needs to prioritise the threefold strategy of refining, recycling, and legal diplomacy with regional cooperation. Sri Lanka also needs the metal to improve its economy and to fulfil its energy needs.
For both India and Sri Lanka is a great game of minerals where China can play a role using Sri Lanka either as a stabiliser to fulfil its geopolitical goals or to use Sri Lanka to get the minerals indirectly. India and Sri Lanka both need to strategically work on their stockpiles and circular economic policies. India must strengthen its legal reach within the ISA in terms of negotiations and exploration licenses. ANS, as of now, is geographically neutral but is claimed under the exploration licence in India. India advocated for peaceful exploration at UNCLOS. China, through the indirect channels, showed interest in mining in the few adjacent areas, but what about the ethical considerations? Sri Lanka, India should not forget that ethical considerations are also important and should not be ignored; mining must be cooperative, sustainable, and should follow the norms of environmental rights, as the ocean bed is ecological heritage.
Race for Dominance
The great race of Cobalt exploration is already on, which is termed as Cobalt Wars. India, with the collaboration of ISA, already has invested in mining technology such as ocean mapping, seabed mapping, and robotics to exploit the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount. At the same time, China controls the major share of cobalt and the mineral chain from African mines to the great Pacific. Sri Lanka has always been balancing between these two Asian Giants. The current situation presents the classic case of “Resource Diplomacy”, which is supplementing itself with “Geoeconomically centred Strategic Geography”. The new race of scrambling is for the great game of Green Technology between India and China.
While the competition and struggle for the mineral within the Indian Ocean region is not far and it cannot be ruled out. The regionalism of IOR here can help solve the issue where organisations such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association can promote dialogue. What India, Sri Lanka can do with the help of the ISA and UN-CLCS, both can advocate for a regional cobalt framework where joint exploration can help them reduce conflicts while keeping the environmental norms in the sphere of decision-making, and equitable benefit sharing, which can also be helpful.
Why it Matters to Triad
India, Sri Lanka, and China, which are major players, reflect the competitive intersection of resource-based geopolitics, where India has limited domestic reserves of cobalt with ANS. It can reduce the overdependency on imports, which can be profitable to the Indian EV market. While Sri Lanka, which has the most leveraged geopolitical and geostrategic location, has a pending plea in UN-CLCS, which challenged the claims of India to mine the mineral, China, which already aggressively and dominantly controls the cobalt market share in the cobalt supply chain, is seeking resources with the help of Sri Lanka. “The competition of Triad” intensifies the conflict and resource-based diplomacy within the IOR.
While competition is inevitable, cooperation must not be ruled out. The Indian Ocean has a long history of regionalism with organisations like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) promoting dialogue on maritime security and sustainable development. A regional cobalt framework, supported by IORA, could facilitate joint exploration, environmental norms, and equitable benefit-sharing. Such mechanisms will be necessary to avoid a repeat of land-based resource conflicts that plagued the 20th century. The formula of 6Cs, which can be helpful in terms of resource diplomacy, where cooperation together with and consensus and conserving the environment resolve the conflict with conflict resolution strategies with mutual capacity building.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the competition for cobalt mining within IOR is a reflection of the very nature of global transformation. The scramble needs a delicate balance between geostrategic goals and responsibility. The cobalt reserves within IOR provide both opportunities and risks, which can accelerate the green energy transition and economic growth, but can create geopolitical tension between India-China-Sri Lanka. The balance will require both India and Sri Lanka’s cooperation, where both can mine the resource together, sharing the benefits.
Ashutosh Shukla is a Research Intern at NIICE and completed his Master's in International Relations and Strategic Studies from University of Mumbai, India.
