The Future of US-China Relations
Watch it on NIICE Nepal Youtube Channel
Event Report
The Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) conducted a webinar last 20 September 2022 on the future relations between the United States (US) and China. The event invited Dr. Seong-Hyon Lee, a senior fellow from the George H. W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, as the guest speaker.
The speaker began his discussion by recalling a conference he attended in China last 2016. Simultaneously, Donald Trump was elected as the 45th president of the US. One of the topics at the conference involved the question of what would happen to the relationship between the US and China after the election of Trump. According to him, many of the Chinese scholars at the time did not worry much about the event as Trump is also a businessman who could always arrange business. This general reaction reflected the effectiveness of strengthening the ties with Trump and the US through business incentives and measures. In Seoul, Dr. Lee also observed the same reaction to the election of Donald Trump. Many scholars assumed that despite the disagreement between the US and China, in a long run, these two countries will settle their differences to improve their economic ties.
Furthermore, Dr. Lee provided his analysis of the relations between the US and China. He cited the 2012 documentary film ‘Death by China’ by Peter Navaro, who later on served under the Trump administration as the White House economic chief. The film showed a series of interviews with several mainstream American scholars and former Republican and Democrat officials, including Donald Trump. It negatively portrayed the perspective of Americans toward China. Through this film, Dr. Lee argued that China has no reason to underestimate Trump’s governance. As he went to Washington, he stumbled upon the idea of how Americans acknowledged Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks on the country’s aspiration in overtaking the US as a global superpower. This challenge was recognized as a more crucial matter than before. With that being said, Dr. Lee asserted that these stories are the unfolding challenges between the US and China. This conveys that the scholars’ initial mild reaction started to change as tensions between these two countries slowly escalated.
In 2018, the relationship between the US and China began to worsen as a consequence of the so-called trade war. The US State Department forbids its diplomats to use the terminologies ‘trade war’ and ‘trade dispute’. Rather, the term ‘trade tension’ is an appropriate interpretation of the emerging issue. The reason for this is that the Americans do not want to use their language in shaping their relationship with China in a negative way. Moreover, their relationship started to deteriorate and expand from economic tensions to other sectors including issues on human rights and democracy. The territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are also considered to be the cause of the growing tensions between the two countries. The speaker observed that this strained relationship challenges analysts and scholars to think logically and avoid groundless conclusions.
According to Dr. Lee’s assessment, China currently considers the US, under the administration of President Joe Biden, as a declining superpower. This perception was based on the aftermath of the four-year ‘democratic decay’ by the Trump administration. Americans have been suffering from ‘democratic decay’ due to racial discrimination, immigration issues, high inflation rate, and political divide. In addition, the speaker also argued the possibilities of changes in the US government as there will be an upcoming midterm election by November this year that could worsen the political divide. Republicans might take over the seats in the Senate, and a Republican president might reclaim the White House in the next two years. Aside from this, the US will have to deal with its strained relations with Russia amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ongoing struggle of the US is recognized by President Xi as a ‘once in a hundred-year opportunity’ for China to emerge as a global superpower. Contrary to the narratives that China does not want the position as a superpower, Dr. Lee justified its growing influence in the international arena. In the economic sector, China is the top exporter and has the most number of trading partners in the world. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 was recorded at 78 percent and nearly caught up with the US GDP. In terms of security, China’s military power is also acknowledged by other countries. Given this unprecedented rise of China, it is reasonable for the country to aim for hegemony.
In the argument on the continuance of Xi Jinping’s presidential term, Dr. Lee stated that the president might not encounter any difficulty. This insight is based on the previous announcement for China’s party congress that talked about the policies for the next five years. It narrated two things – the first is common prosperity, and the second is common destiny – which is both inclined to the slogan of President Xi. In other words, it ambiguous hints that there is no meaningful rival against Xi, and will certainly win another term.
To conclude his discussion, Dr. Lee provided his expectations for the next presidential term of Xi Jinping. In the area of politics, President Xi will strengthen the governance of the Chinese Communist Party in all sectors. In terms of the economy, President Xi will continue to unfold dual circulation and will strengthen its domestic sector. Additionally, President Xi will continue implementing common prosperity in society. On the other hand, China’s foreign policy will focus on forming a new type of international relations and neighborly diplomatic affairs. This will help China in strengthening its ties with immediate countries including the Korean Peninsula, India, Mongolia, Russia, Thailand, and Nepal. In the issue with Taiwan, President Xi will be more determined to the idea of ‘unification’. Dr. Lee clarified that these assumptions are based on the things that the president has been pursuing. In other words, it will focus on continuity rather than change for the foreseeable future.
Prepared by Nikki Leoniza S. Abarientos, Intern at NIICE.