The Future of India-China Relations
Watch it on NIICE Nepal Youtube Channel
The Future of India-China Relations
May 16, 2022
The webinar on India-China relations was conducted by NIICE with Professor Kanti Prasad Bajpai of the National University of Singapore. He has also been a professor of International Politics at JNU and of Politics and International relations of South Asia at Oxford. The webinar is about the book he authored titled, ‘India Versus China’, where he tries to answer why the two countries are not “friends” in the larger context. He begins by telling us about the Four P’s responsible for Indo-China relations: Perception, Perimeters, Partnership, and Power.
The first part of his book explains how the “Perception” of the two countries has changed from respect to disdain. India-China has had Buddhist links since approximately 1000 AD when pilgrims, traders, and monks would come to India. During the 15th century, the roles reversed and Indian kingdoms started looking up to China until the latter closed its international engagements across the sea. By the late 19th century, China started looking at India with an unhappy eye, and India it started seeing China through colonial eyes disdaining its colonial practices. Prof. Prasad sees this as the first big reason behind their coldness.
The second part of the book focuses on “Perimeters” or the border issues of India and China, stressing mainly the Tibetan issue. It began in early 1950 when India and China sat to negotiate border problems in good faith. However different schools of thought and some ambiguous statements of both the countries led each to believe that the other side was not being transparent, thus losing trust. India made an agreement with China in 1950 and 1954 and pulled out of its involvement in Tibet. As Prof. Prasad says, it was a good cooperative beginning. However, the Khampa rebellion led China to believe that India instigated it. This was the moment of cooperation to conflict. Soon after making negotiations and entering into an agreement in 2005, conflicts began to emerge which further led to incursions on borders. Post-2010, India stopped regarding Tibet as a part of China in response to various Chinese statements over Arunachal Pradesh.
The third aspect of the book covers the “Partnership” of both countries with superpowers USA and Russia, and with each other. In the late 1950s, Delhi began inclining towards the USA after a period of the former agreeing with China on “Asia being for Asians only”. India almost became quasi-ally of the west when American arms and intelligence flew to India. India is closer to the USA in the shadow of rising Chinese power and the latter being closer to Russia, to counter the USA underlines the fact that India-China has been a partner.
International Relations (IR) are regulated by the Power relationship between countries. After 1947, India and China were more or less equal until 1980 when the gap occurred. According to World Bank figures China’s GDP is 5 times that of India’s with a $12 trillion gap. Considering the military power, even though China has enormous technological developments in weapons and a huge army, India is comfortable owing to geographical reasons. Prof. Prasad also implied the importance of soft power stating that a country can get its way by the power of persuasion and attraction. Contradictory to the general view, the professor holds the view that China leads on significant elements of soft power. This part of the book implies asymmetry in power, especially in the economic domains.
Prof. Prasad concludes the book and the webinar by saying that China has an enormous lead and thus does not want to make concessions with India. India on the other hand, given the power gap, would not make any reasonable concession as it would be read as a strategic surrender. “China has no incentive to make concessions and India has no political courage to make any concessions.”
Prepared by Shriya Mishra, NIICE Intern