Watch it on the NIICE Nepal YouTube channel

EVENT REPORT

A webinar was hosted by the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) to discuss the “Strategic Implications of the Rise of China and India,” featuring Prof. Rory Medcalf AM, a Professor from Australian National University, Cranberry. Prof. Medcalf began his talk with a call to embed the webinar’s focus within the context of the Indo-Pacific region, along with an Australian perspective on the rise of the Asian giants.

China and India's rise has economic and security implications for the region. Asia has never been unipolar; it has always been dominated by cooperation and competition. Therefore, even if China aspires to be the regional hegemon, its attempts to reinvent Asia as a China-centric region with a China-centric history is nothing but a mythology. Similarly, while the region has always been in conflict to preserve their own national and cultural identity, it has developed a strategic culture of multipolarity that helps it navigate through multiple centers of power and influence. Connectivity in economic relations, infrastructure and human relations has further broken down the idea of East Asia and South Asia being distinct compartments of political development. This connectivity has much to do with China’s economic rise and the BRI initiative. On the other hand, India has been unable to separate national security from the security of the border region, which has propelled its growth as part of the regional strategic dynamic.

Only 30 years ago or so, the Australians never feared China as a potential regional hegemon, nor was India considered as a viable security partner. Furthermore, the Australian state is much more wary of possible conflict arising from border issues between India and China, primarily because, despite the military asymmetry between China and India, India has repeatedly shown confidence to stand up to the Chinese harassment on disputed borders through its instrumental use of security arrangements with the QUAD. Prof. Medcalf also expresses apprehension about the Chinese denial of India’s civilisational peer status and underestimating the Indian political will.

He discusses the middle power frustration of wanting to preserve a reasonable degree of diplomatic freedom and agency and wanting multiple prospective partners for investment and development, such as the case of Australia. There is a need to build partnerships with other democratic states with capabilities to build national resilience that isn’t forced to take sides in a strategic contest. India and China may intend to protect and expand their national pride. Still, it is also up to the middle powers to keep sending signals that crisis escalations result in similar repercussions for every state in the current globalised world order.

During the final segment of the webinar, Prof. Medcalf shared his thoughts on queries from online participants, reinstating that some 20-30 years later India will be more powerful and more selective of its asymmetrical confrontations with China. At the same time, China will continue to reinforce its influence, and thus their rivalry will move beyond the regional, and fall into the global domain. The focus will be on how India plays its partnerships globally, especially due to its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which makes states like Australia concerned about India’s foreign policy. Nonetheless, despite the complications of India-Russia closeness and India-China complications, there is also a possibility that China would be pulled down by its own internal problems and may not be the regional dominant anymore, ensuring a stabilising effect on the region. This possibility is due to China’s quasi-colonial designs through security arrangements and BRI connectivity; expanding an empire beyond its control. In this context, the coalition of middle-power states would effectively curb PRC China's expansionist ideals.

Prof. Medcalf dismissed any possibility of complex alignment between India, China, and Russia, given China and Russia’s historically asymmetrical relation and the China-India rivalry which would only push India further towards the USA and its allies. On questions on BRI, he deliberated that China may have overstretched itself with its loans, and might be unable to cope with international calls for transparency, as well the implications of the rivalry for the third world, such as Nepal, which is unfortunately sandwiched between two giants. The webinar drew to a close with the professor’s observation of how the concept of multipolarity has come to represent different things for different states and that the future of China will look a lot more untidy, unmanageable and unpredictable than what the CCP wants us to believe.

Prepared by Shreya Das, NIICE Intern