Watch it on NIICE Nepal Youtube Channel

Event Report

The webinar was held by NIICE, Nepal on the politics of climate change, presented by Professor Kerry Andrew Emmanuel. Prof. Emanuel is an American Professor of Meteorology currently working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, USA. Through the webinar, he tries to explain the threat that climate change poses and shares the possible solutions to the climate problem. He breaks the program down into three parts: evidence for a human effect on climate, climate risks and technical and policy options respectively.

Prof. Emmanuel begins by explaining the atmospheric composition and how climate is strongly influenced by long-lived greenhouse gases such as Carbon dioxide (CO₂), Methane (CH₄) and Nitrous Oxide (N₂O). It is shown that the concentration of CO₂ has increased by 46 percent since the dawn of the industrial revolution. He notes that the increase of these gases with time will incur very large risks to ourselves and our descendants and quotes Svante Arrhenius; “any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth’s surface by 4*, and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the temperature would rise by 8*.” Prof. Emmanuel uses the temperature and precipitation trends in Nepal between 2000 and 2015 as an example. Though uncertain, he shares with us an estimate of how much the global climate will warm as a result of a doubling of CO₂ in the future and notes that there is a possibility of CO₂ going well beyond the estimated double. According to IPCC 2007, doubling CO₂ will lead to an increase in mean global surface temperature of 2 to 4.5 Celsius.

After explaining the available data to calculate emissions and the rise in temperature and the scientific side of the climate problem, Prof. Emmanuel speaks of the climate risks and the climate benefits next.

The climate risks are as follows,

1. Increasing sea level – increasing sea levels are a concern for many island nations, especially the Maldives. Higher rises in sea levels lead to lower land areas being flooded.
2. The world may reach hydrological extremes leading to intense rainfall. Increasing hydrological events such as droughts and floods which is going to affect many areas of the world including Nepal. This has potential effects on food and water supplies and thereby making it a major national security issue.
3. Increasing incidence of high category hurricanes and associated storm surges and freshwater flooding
4. More heat stress and other health risks due to hot places getting hotter.
5. Armed conflict – this is due to the fact that these hydrological extremes historically and at present are causing mass migrations away from areas that no longer can support populations and that invariably leads to disputes and armed conflicts.

The climate benefits are some initial increase in plant productivity from the direct effect of CO₂ in the atmosphere and a reduction in health problems related to cold weather. Prof. Emmanuel states that according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, after taking the range of published evidence as a whole, there is an indication that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and increase over time. Moreover, according to the Quadrennial Defense Review (2010), “climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation and the further weakening of fragile government. Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity will increase the spread of disease, and may spur or exacerbate mass migration.”

Prof. Emmanuel interestingly notes that where there is a risk, there is opportunity. The threat of climate change is forcing countries to rethink the way they run things. It is no doubt that the global economy should be rapidly decarbonized and to do this a combination of different energy sources needs to be adopted to rapidly and inexpensively decarbonise the global economy. Cheap clean power offers pathways to increase the quality of life globally. He notes that conservation will help but nearly, but not enough and countries may have to switch to synthetic fuels, and batteries in the case of transportation and still need to consider non-electrical energy for high-temperature industrial applications. To decarbonise the global economy by 2040, Prof. Emmanuel says that the solutions lie in renewable energy (solar, wind), gas with carbon sequestration, nuclear fission, and the elimination of fossil fuels. All these solutions have pros and cons to them, as explained by him. For example, current storage costs limit intermittent renewable to less than 40 percent market penetration and though fission can be ramped up rapidly and economically it cannot currently compete in open markets with fracked gas and strongly subsidized renewables. Prof. Emmanuel states that for any problem, solutions must be catalysed. In this case, the negative externalities of carbon emissions should be priced.

Prepared by Yumna Azeez, Intern at NIICE.