Is the New Cold War a Myth or Reality?
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Event Report
From the end of World War II to the year 1989 when the Berlin Wall was taken down, the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) emerged as two universalistic power hegemons. Their rivalry drew what Winston Churchill referred to as the Iron Curtain, separating the West, i.e., United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, from the East, which included the Soviet Union and its allies. The end of the Cold War altered global architecture in profound ways. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States assumed unrivalled hegemony However, the emerging global order created a niche for players who had previously been on the periphery of shaping global politics. One such power was China. China’s rise was driven by various factors, including restructured production strategies, economic reforms, and soft-power tactics. China is in full swing to be called a world superpower in the twenty-first century. By all measures, it is a dominant regional power in Asia, and its economy, technology, and military might have further enabled it to occupy the driver’s seat in global diplomacy. So much so that scholars have ascertained that China poses a serious threat to US prerogatives and that the world may be witnessing “The New Cold War.”
The session, held on February 23rd, 2022, by United Service Institution, in collaboration with the Fair Observer and NIICE, went on to broadly discuss the question of The New Cold War being a Myth or a Reality by taking into consideration recent developments in the geopolitical status quo. The distinguished panelists included Amb. Atul K Singh, former Ambassador to the United States (2015-2016), France (2013-2015), and Israel (2005-2008), Atul Singh, CEO and Editor-in-Chief of Fair Observer, Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, and Mr. Christopher, a budding Senator from Texas, USA. The Host, Gen. B.K. Singh contextualized the discussion by discussing how China is thriving in a US-based system and the way ideological contradictions between the US and China have compounded contestation over ideology, trade, economy, technology, and strategic location. Furthermore, he emphasized the skeptical alignments and realignments of small and medium-sized powers vying for influence in the current global system for power and interests. Finally, he concluded his introductory remarks by stating that the current situation appears extremely volatile through the lens of International Relations, considering the dilemmas that have emerged in the geopolitical sphere as a consequence of multiple territorial and political flashpoints that have triggered life-altering conflicts in contemporary memory.
Former Ambassador Atul K. Singh chaired the entire discussion by examining the ‘New Dimension’ of the Cold War. In his opening remarks, he underlined the fact that, with global tensions rising, there is no better time to address the issue of a new cold war than now. Mechanizing his argument, the Ambassador attempted to present a bird’s-eye view of the dynamics and developments affecting world politics in this day and stage. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is bound to have destabilizing ripple effects in other parts of the world where crumbling on-paper agreements and assurances are holding crisis regions together, he added. Besides that, he recounted history, observing that the US has done a similar thing by intervening in countries such as Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Iraq, among others, in the past. Finally, he concluded that the potentially increasing adversarial orientations of the major powers make security situations bleak, and that, we live in an era when great powers are attempting to sell their narratives in order to gain wider international acceptance, and it remains to be seen what India will do to play this great power game tactfully.
Followed by the Former Ambassador, Atul Singh the CEO of FAIR Observer, and a visiting Professor to numerous prestigious institutions, shared his views on the aforementioned issue. In his 25 minutes address, he crafted the metrics of the new cold war debate and structured it into three key fragments. First and foremost, he recalled the history of the Cold War and quoted the renowned political scientist Francis Fukuyama while outlining the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. He then noted the crucial aspects of the economy, ideology, trade, military and politics that have caused a schism between the United States and China. Mr. Singh dealt with the scenario’s nuances with care and substantiated all of his arguments with both theoretical and empirical evidence. In his final statement, He quoted John Mearsheimer, a realist who famously argued that the United States and China have entered a cold war that is more dangerous than the primary Chilly Warfare, and that any miscalculation on either side can lead to a full-fledged hot war.
Mr. Christopher, a budding senator from Texas with extensive experience at Capitol Hill in the United States, joined the distinguished panel virtually. He provided excellent insights into how we can understand that we are in a warlike situation, as cold wars, unlike hot wars, do not have formal and institutional declarations. Furthermore, he underscored the significance of formal alliance groupings like QUAD and AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific on the rocky road of geopolitics. Finally, the invigorating and insightful session which dealt with the question of New Cold War was concluded by the remarks of Sri Lanka’s Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja, who discussed the Wolf Warrior Diplomacy practised by China and its expansionist tendencies in Asia.
What could be concluded from this session is that new manifestations of the said cold war could be seen in the world order and given the precarious state of geopolitics a hot war could soon become a reality.
Prepared by Sanjana Prithyani, Intern at NIICE Nepal