WATCH IT ON NIICE NEPAL YOUTUBE CHANNEL

Event Report

On October 10^th 2023, the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) hosted the webinar on "Attack on Israel: Implications and Impact”." The event was witnessed by representatives from various diplomatic missions and security agencies. Chiran Jung Thapa,Security expert, provided an in-depth analysis of the October 7th attack of militant group Hamas against Israel from Gaza and its implications and impact.

Thapa began his presentation by discussing the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel from Gaza, which marked the first direct conflict within Israel since 1948. The attack involved rocket barrages and ground incursions, prompting Israel to declare war for the first time since 1973, resulting in at least 900 deaths in Israel and 744 in Gaza, rooted in a complex history of territorial disputes since 1917. This unprecedented assault saw Hamas launch about 5,000 rockets in just 20 minutes, overwhelming Israel's Iron Dome defense system. Labeled the most significant attack on Israel since the Holocaust, the incident raised serious concerns about the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence in detecting such extensive planning.

Thapa emphasized that the coordinated assault by Hamas led Israel to declare war and initiate retaliatory strikes on Gaza, with the U.S. dispatching an aircraft carrier for support. The incident has far-reaching implications, potentially shifting global geopolitical dynamics, affecting conflicts in Ukraine and tensions between China and Taiwan by diverting international attention. It may also inspire extremist groups and necessitate a reassessment of foreign nationals' safety in Israel, including Nepali workers. This situation highlights the need for countries like Nepal to develop evacuation plans for their citizens in conflict zones. Additionally, there are speculations about Iran's role in the attack, possibly aimed at disrupting potential Saudi-Israeli cooperation.

Thapa highlighted significant intelligence failures in Israel, despite its advanced security agencies like Mossad. Hamas successfully evaded surveillance by using face-to-face communication and underground tunnels, resulting in an unprecedented attack that has profound geopolitical implications. This conflict challenges the assumption that advanced technology guarantees military success, as Hamas's low-tech strategies demonstrated that adaptability can inflict substantial damage. The cost disparity between Hamas missiles and Israeli interceptions underscores the need for more cost-effective defense solutions, such as the emerging Iron Beam technology. The integrated nature of the attacks resembles full-scale military operations, raising concerns about potential escalations involving countries like Iran and Turkey. Immediate effects include rising oil prices and a weakened Israeli currency, while U.S. foreign policy may shift focus and resources from Ukraine to support Israel, impacting the 2024 presidential elections as candidates respond to public sentiment regarding the conflict.

Thapa recommended that for Nepal, the situation is precarious due to its historical ties with Israel and the large number of Nepali workers in the Middle East. Nepal must develop contingency plans for potential evacuations and strengthen diplomatic relations with both Israel and Middle Eastern nations to safeguard its citizens and interests. Additionally, Nepal's voting patterns in international forums reflect a delicate balancing act, necessitating a review of its foreign policy to navigate the complexities of maintaining ties with both Israel and Arab nations while acknowledging ongoing violence.

During the Q&A session he answered questions of how the hostage crisis presents challenges for Israel, which must assess the number and location of hostages for potential rescue operations. The complexities of using hostages as human shields by Hamas complicate military actions, leading Israel to consider negotiation, though this seems unlikely.Similarly he answered questions of long-term peace where prospects between Israel and Palestine appear bleak, but history shows that prolonged conflicts can find resolutions, emphasizing the need for hope and nuanced engagement with foreign partners in these turbulent times.

In conclusion, Thapa emphasized that the October 7th attack by Hamas has significant implications for geopolitical dynamics and security strategies worldwide. It impacts U.S. foreign policy and the safety of foreign nationals, including Nepali workers. He urged Nepal to prioritize citizen safety and engage in strategic diplomacy to balance relations with both Israel and Arab nations. While immediate peace prospects seem grim, Thapa highlighted that resilient and adaptable diplomatic efforts are crucial for seeking long-term resolutions.