12 July 2024, NIICE Commentary 9352
Niña Acol

One of the most pressing geopolitical issues today is the South China Sea (SCS) dispute. This dispute involves the overlapping of claims over islands, reefs, and maritime zones, due to the region’s rich resources, strategic location, and vital shipping routes, which intensifies its significance and attracts the attention of major powers, one being China. Minilateral cooperation is a collaborative engagement between several states, usually three to five. This has emerged as a favored diplomatic tool as it offers flexibility, efficiency, and the ability to address specific issues that might be challenging for larger multilateral forums to tackle. The Philippines, as an active claimant in the SCS dispute, has been actively engaging in minilateral initiatives in recent years. One particular engagement is the ‘Squad’ cooperation, marking a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea. By aligning with like-minded nations like the United States, Japan, and Australia, the Philippines is strengthening its position in the ongoing maritime dispute. This strategic move not only alters regional dynamics but also challenges China’s dominance in the contested waters. The impact of this minilateral cooperation could have far-reaching implications for alliances and the future trajectory of the South China Sea conflict.

Shift to Multilateralism Shift to Multilateralism

For decades, the Philippines heavily relied on its treaty alliance with the United States for security, particularly in the face of the South China Sea dispute. However, recent developments have promoted a strategic shift towards minilateralism. China’s growing assertiveness in the region, coupled with perceptions of U.S. unreliability under previous administrations, has pushed the Philippines to diversify its security partnerships. By engaging in minilateral initiatives, the Philippines seek to bolster its defense capabilities and deter Chinese aggression.

In this context, the Philippines has actively engaged in minilateral initiatives, most notably the ‘Squad’ cooperation with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. This partnership focuses on enhancing maritime security, conducting joint patrols and exercises, and sharing intelligence to deter China’s aggressive actions. The motivations behind these engagements are multifaceted. Primarily, the Philippines seeks to strengthen its maritime security capabilities and deter China’s incursions into its territorial waters. By aligning with like-minded nations, the Philippines aims to create a balance of power in the region and safeguard its national interests. Moreover, minilateralism offers flexibility and efficiency compared to larger multilateral forums, allowing the Philippines to address specific security concerns more effectively.

Geopolitical Implications of Minilateral Cooperation

The emergence of the Squad cooperation has significantly altered the power dynamics in the South China Sea, introducing a formidable counterweight to China’s growing influence. By aligning with the United States, Japan, and Australia, the Philippines has amplified its voice and strengthened its position in the maritime dispute. This minilateral partnership enhances the region’s security architecture by pooling resources, intelligence, and military capabilities. The combined naval presence of the Squad nations creates a deterrent against China’s aggressive actions, such as island-building and militarization. The potential for joint patrols, exercises, and information sharing demonstrates a united front against unilateral attempts to change the status quo.

However, the cooperation’s impact on ASEAN’s centrality and unity remains a complex issue. While some ASEAN members welcome it as a stabilizing force, others worry about being drawn into major power rivalries. The Philippines’ active participation in the Squad could strain its relations with China and create divisions within ASEAN. It is crucial for it to engage with ASEAN as a whole and respect its centrality in regional affairs. This can be achieved through inclusive dialogues, consultations, and cooperation on shared interests like maritime security and economic development.

In terms of deterrence and security, the cooperation has the potential to enhance maritime domain awareness and deter China’s aggression. By sharing intelligence, conducting joint exercises, and coordinating responses, it can create a more robust security environment. However, there are also risks of escalation and miscalculation. China might perceive the Squad as a containment strategy and respond with countermeasures, potentially leading to an arms race or even conflict.

Economically, the cooperation offers significant benefits for the Philippines. Increased trade, investment, and technology transfer from its Squad partners can boost the Philippine economy and create jobs. Moreover, minilateralism can strengthen diplomatic ties and coordination among partners, fostering trust and cooperation on various issues beyond security. However, it is essential to ensure that the economic benefits are distributed equitably and do not exacerbate existing inequalities within the Philippines. The cooperation also has implications for regional institutions and forums like ASEAN and the East Asia Summit (EAS). While minilateralism can complement existing regional mechanisms, it should not undermine their role or legitimacy. It should strive to work in synergy with ASEAN and the EAS, contributing to regional stability and prosperity.

In conclusion, the Squad cooperation represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea. Its impact on regional dynamics, deterrence, security, economics, and diplomacy is multifaceted and complex. While it presents opportunities for the Philippines and the region, it also poses challenges that require careful management and coordination. By striking a balance between minilateralism and multilateralism, the Philippines can navigate the evolving regional order and safeguard its national interests in the South China Sea.

Challenges and Future Outlook 

The Squad cooperation, while promising, faces challenges in maintaining unity and coherence among its diverse members, each with unique interests and priorities. Additionally, the initiative could provoke a backlash from China, potentially escalating tensions. The sustainability of minilateralism in the South China Sea depends on continued commitment from all members, especially amidst changing domestic political landscapes. Looking ahead, several scenarios are possible. It could evolve into a more formalized security alliance, or it could remain a flexible, issue-based partnership. Alternatively, rising tensions could lead to increased militarization and conflict. Minilateralism will likely play a crucial role in shaping the future of the dispute, either by fostering cooperation and stability or contributing to escalation. The key lies in striking a balance between minilateralism and multilateralism, engaging with ASEAN, and prioritizing diplomatic solutions.

Conclusion

The Philippines’ embrace of minilateralism, exemplified by the Squad cooperation, is a strategic response to the evolving geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea. While offering potential benefits like enhanced security and economic opportunities, this approach faces challenges in maintaining unity and managing potential escalation. The future of the South China Sea remains uncertain, with minilateralism playing a pivotal role. Its success hinges on continued cooperation, engagement with regional stakeholders, and prioritizing diplomatic solutions. Further research is crucial to understand the complex dynamics and implications of minilateralism in shaping regional stability and the dispute’s resolution.

Niña Acol is a Research Intern at NIICE and she has completed her BA in International Studies from the Polytechnic University of the Philippines (PUP).