5 September 2020, NIICE Commentary 5936
Poonam Khatana
The Syrian uprising which began in 2011 with a peaceful protest demanding political and economic reforms transformed into a violent civil war, witnessing regional and international ramifications. The horror of the civil war resulted in the tragic loss of lives and massive physical destruction churning out the massive displacement of the civilian population, both within and outside Syria. The Syrian civil war became the site of unparalleled destruction in modern history with almost half the million people losing their lives, and more than 7 million Syrians witnessing internal displacement. This civil war also made more than 4.8 million Syrians flee to the neighbouring countries of Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, Egypt, and some countries of Europe. The Syrian civil war became the biggest humanitarian catastrophe of recent history.
The neighbouring countries exhibited the spill over of Syrian civil war; however, Lebanon witnessed serious repercussions. Witnessing the small size of the country, out of more than four million people who fled Syria, more than one million registered as refugees took shelter in Lebanon, surpassing 25 percent of Lebanon’s population at 4.4 million. The massive influx of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, largest in proportion to its size, Lebanon hence became the country with the highest per capita concentration of refugees worldwide. Women and children consisted of more than fifty percent of the Syrian refugees.
Furthermore, growing sectarian tensions, political turmoil, increasing presence of local and transnational Salafi-jihadi groups, and the involvement of regional and international actors in Syrian civil war made already weakened Lebanese state more fragile both politically and economically. The involvement of Hezbollah in the Syrian civil war despite the adoption of ‘Baabda Declaration’ by Lebanon created political crisis leading to presidential vacuum and the postponement of the parliamentary elections. The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Syrian conflict have exacerbated the polarization in Lebanese politics. The violence near Syria-Lebanon border has made the situation more difficult from security perspective. Moreover, the huge influx of Syrian refugees has put a severe political, economic and social strain on Lebanon. Majority of the Syrian refugees belong to the Sunni sect and thus created demographic imbalances and exacerbated differences in its confessional polity. The Syrian refugee issue has led to political instability and the internal divisions in Lebanon.
The repeated violations of the dissociation policy forced Prime Minister Mikati to resign in March 2013, leading to the collapse of the Hezbollah-backed cabinet. The vacuum filled by the caretaker government which was not able to take any decision towards Syrian refugees. The extension of parliament term by 17 months in the absence of consensus on election law and holding parliamentary elections. On 14 February 2014, Prime Minister Tammam Salam finally formed a new cabinet; however, the seat of President remained vacant after Michel Suleiman stepped down in late May 2014. It was only in October 2016, Michel Aoun was elected as the new president of Lebanon. The Office of President remained vacant for 29 months from May 2014 until 31 October 2016, since parliament was unable to obtain the majority required to elect a president. It witnessed the deepened political divisions created by the Syrian civil war. The latter paralysed the Lebanese government. The absence of strategic decision-making characterised the initial attitude of the Lebanese government towards the early influx of Syrians. Their approach was considered as ‘burying its head in the sand’ and labelling Syrians as ‘displaced’ or ‘defacto refugees’ and denied to call them refugees.
Initially in the form of ‘Open Door Policy’, Syrian refugees were allowed to enter Lebanon, but as their number crossed one million with passing time, a feeling of insecurity and fear emerged, of Syrian refugees becoming the permanent reality. Since the majority of the Syrian refugees belong to the Sunni community, this would change the demographic balance against the interests of Christian and Shia political groups in Lebanon. The same scenario occurred in 1948 and 1967 in the form of a wave of Palestinian refugees. Many of the Palestinian refugees, along with their descendants, have become the permanent feature of Lebanon today. The presence of Syrian refugees impacted the Lebanese politics and is creating pressure for reordering of national politics as well as relations with Syria. For many, Lebanon suffers from political instability due to its unique political system based on confessionalism. In this situation, the presence of Syrian refugees pushes for the re-examination of the weakness of the Lebanese state. Syrian refugees who burden the public services led to emerging sectarian tensions. Therefore, the Syrian refugee crisis provides a critical case study for reconsidering the nature of the Lebanese state as well as the political system.
Considering economic implications, the Syrian civil war, in general, created enormous macro-economic challenges in Lebanon than the presence of the Syrian refugees. Undoubtedly, the Syrian crisis has “intensified the weaknesses of the Lebanese economy. Syria is not only an important trading partner to Lebanon but provides a significant transit route. Lebanon’s trade with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman takes place through Syria. Due to the Syrian civil war, Lebanon was forced to opt for more expensive alternative trade routes, increasing the export prices hurting competitiveness. Moreover, tourism industry witnessed a drastic change in the form of decline in the tourists’ arrival. In other words, the Syrian civil war impacted the Lebanese economy both with direct and indirect fiscal costs.
The Lebanese economy was already in a vulnerable condition before the arrival of Syrian refugees; it just further deteriorated the case in the form of increasing unemployment, poverty, the decline in GDP growth, trade deficit and tourist’s arrival. The Lebanese economy was unable to provide employment even before the Syrian civil war broke out; however, the massive presence of Syrian refugees increased the unemployment rate among Lebanese nationals, particularly the population belonging to the low skilled category. There is a decline in the wage system since Syrian refugees started taking up jobs for lower wages leading to reduce the income of the Lebanese population, pushing them into extreme poverty. Undoubtedly, they added pressure to an already fragile economy, which was recovering out of the previous internal and external shocks. The weak public finances and critical infrastructure suffered severely as the result of their presence. As a result of the Syrian civil war and the massive influx of Syrian refugees, it became more fragile and weaker with increasing political instability, economic volatility, and sectarian violence.
Having emerged from its civil war, stability in Lebanon remains fragile. Lebanon was already a vulnerable state due to its fragile confessional polity and the weak economy. The protests since October 2019 witnessed the weak political and economic machinery of the country. The failure of the Lebanese government to fulfil the basic necessities of the people and rampant corruption became the major reasons for the popular protests. Their demand for political and economic reforms resulted in the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri leading to formation of a new government headed by Hassan Diab, who also submitted his resignation in August 2020 in the wake of the Beirut explosion and since then has been acting as a care taker Prime Minister. The stable and sustainable future of Lebanon and its capital Beirut; once called as ‘Switzerland’ and ‘Paris’ of West Asia respectively require considerate internal economic and political reforms along with financial support of the International community.
