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Event Report

The discussion was organized by NIICE Nepal and was chaired by Dr. Pramod Jaiswal. The main speaker was Dr. Amit Gupta. Dr. Amit Gupta is an Associate Professor at the USAF Air War College, Alabama. His writings have focused on arms production and weapons proliferation, South Asian and Australian security policies, Diaspora politics, popular culture and politics, and, more recently, on the US-China rivalry and the impact of demography on US foreign policy. His articles have appeared in Orbis, Asian Survey, Security Dialogue, The Round Table, and Mediterranean Quarterly.  He is also the author or editor of seven books the most recent of which are: Air Power: The Next Generation, Amit Gupta Ed., Howgate Publishing, 2019, and Maritime Heritage and Challenges in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific, Howard M. Hensel and Amit Gupta (Eds.) Routledge, 2018.

He started the discussion on how the US has military and technological superiority and divides the world into combatant commands. But US unipolarity was challenged particularly by the rise of China. The speaker brought forth that the Current National Defence Strategy is geared to focus on China and Russia with a primary focus on China. Both Bush and Obama sought to focus on China but were dragged into the Middle East. Trump has sought to reduce the footprint in the Middle East to focus on China and to a lesser extent Russia which are seen as the greater security concerns of the near to medium term.

The price of nuclear weapons and the cost of conventional global power are increasing. Over a ten-year period, nuclear modernization has cost roughly $490 billion.  Budget for US Defence was $738 billion and the Veterans Administration Bill was $220 billion for healthcare and pensions. Thus, the overall cost is $938 billion. Taxation does not increase the revenue base.

He further focused on the Generational and demographic changes in the country. The US becomes a majority-minority country in 2045. Millennials will make up 75% of the workforce in ten years: Additionally, 60 percent said they don’t want to fight. The speaker put important questions like Will this normalize present relationships and be a Eurocentric/North Atlantic alliance? Will the US continue to be the dominant force for intervention? China's High Technology Conflict in Local Environment. The US will win, but can it hold out? Globalization vs. Global Strike As the west re-examines globalization, China and Asia gain significant advantages. 40% of the global GDP, but 70% of growth China will need to invest in America because by 2040, 8 states will have a population of 50% of the total. Can China's technical and economic growth be halted by a military approach coupled with tariffs? 5G is the technology of the future. The US will concentrate on the Pacific.

Currently, the EU/NATO is not the coalition to handle China. Russia is traditionally discouraged but with an asymmetrical challenge The US will stay in NATO, but there is growing internal pressure for Europe to contribute fairly to costs. particularly after COVID 19 US will concentrate on the Pacific. The Future of America is that it’ll be intervening less. In 5–10 years, there will probably be a discussion about spending and commitments. Fortunately, neither China nor Russia can claim to be a major military rival. The floor was opened was questions and the speaker answered them.

Prepared by Anjali Yadav, Intern at NIICE